Measurement
The Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Evidence from a New Public Database Built Using Private Sector Data
Raj Chetty, John Friedman, Michael Stepner, The Opportunity Insights Team
Forthcoming, Quarterly Journal of Economics
April 2023

We build a publicly available database that tracks economic activity at a granular level in real time using anonymized data from private companies. We report daily statistics on consumer spending, business revenues, employment rates, and other key indicators disaggregated by ZIP code, industry, income group, and business size. Using these data, we study how COVID-19 affected the economy by analyzing heterogeneity in its impacts. We first show that high-income individuals reduced spending sharply in mid-March 2020, particularly in areas with high rates of COVID-19 infection and in sectors that require in-person interaction. This reduction in spending greatly reduced the revenues of small businesses in affluent ZIP codes. These businesses laid off many of their employees, leading to widespread job losses especially among low-wage workers in affluent areas. High-wage workers experienced a “V-shaped” recession that lasted a few weeks, whereas low-wage workers experienced much larger job losses that persisted for several months. Building on this diagnostic analysis, we estimate the causal effects of policies aimed at mitigating the adverse impacts of COVID-19. State-ordered reopenings of economies had small impacts on spending and employment. Stimulus payments to low-income households increased consumer spending sharply, but little of this increased spending flowed to businesses most affected by the COVID-19 shock, dampening its impacts on employment. Paycheck Protection Program loans increased employment at small businesses by only 2%, implying a cost of $377,000 per job saved. These results suggest that traditional macroeconomic tools – stimulating aggregate demand or providing liquidity to businesses – have diminished capacity to restore employment when consumer spending is constrained by health concerns. During a pandemic, it may be more fruitful to mitigate economic hardship through social insurance. More broadly, this analysis shows how public statistics constructed from private sector data can support many research and policy analyses without compromising privacy, providing a new tool for empirical macroeconomics.

Data

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Data Dictionary

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Data Documentation

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Data Revisions

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Consumer Spending Data by City

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Consumer Spending Data by County

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Consumer Spending Data by State

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Consumer Spending Data National

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Small Business Openings and Revenue Data by City

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Small Business Openings and Revenue Data by County

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Small Business Openings and Revenue Data by State

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Small Business Openings and Revenue Data National

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Job Postings Data by City

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Job Postings Data by County

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Job Postings Data by State

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Job Postings Data National

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GPS Mobility Data by City

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GPS Mobility Data by County

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GPS Mobility Data by State

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GPS Mobility Data National

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Unemployment Insurance Claims Data by City

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Unemployment Insurance Claims Data by County

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Unemployment Insurance Claims Data by State

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Unemployment Insurance Claims Data National

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Employment Levels by City

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Employment Levels by County

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Employment Levels by State

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Employment Levels National

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Online Math Learning Data by City

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Online Math Learning Data by County

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Online Math Learning Data by State

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Online Math Learning Data National

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COVID Cases, Deaths, Hospitalizations, Tests, and Vaccinations Data by City

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COVID Cases, Deaths, Hospitalizations, Tests, and Vaccinations Data by County

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COVID Cases, Deaths, Hospitalizations, Tests, and Vaccinations Data by State

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COVID Cases, Deaths, Hospitalizations, Tests, and Vaccinations Data National

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Policy Milestones by State

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City Names and FIPs

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County Names and FIPs

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Published Datasets (Consumer Spending; Small Business Openings and Revenue; Employment Levels; Job Postings; GPS Mobility; Unemployment Insurance Claims; Online Math Learning; COVID Cases, Deaths, Hospitalizations, Tests, and Vaccinations; Policy Milestones. Breakdowns by Industry, State, County and City.)

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