This study examines the relationship between standardized test scores (SAT/ACT), high school GPA, and first-year college grades. We use data from admissions and transcript records at multiple Ivy-Plus colleges (Ivy-Plus includes the eight Ivy League colleges plus Chicago, Duke, MIT, and Stanford).

Our research highlights three key findings. First, SAT and ACT scores have substantial predictive power for forecasting first-year college GPA. Students with the highest possible scores (1600 SAT or 36 ACT) achieve a first-year GPA that is 0.43 points higher on a 4.0 scale than those with scores of 1200 SAT or 25 ACT. Those lower-scoring students are also five times more likely to struggle academically (defined as receiving at least one grade of C+ or lower) than students with the highest test scores. Students admitted in recent years without submitting test scores (under test-optional admissions policies) also achieve relatively lower GPAs in college, with academic records equivalent to those with an SAT test score of roughly 1300 (ACT score of 27-28).

Second, high school GPA has relatively little predictive power for first-year academic success. A perfect 4.0 high-school GPA predicts only a 0.1 point higher first-year GPA compared to a 3.2 high-school GPA. This implies that standardized test scores are four times more predictive of academic achievement in college than high school grades.

Third, standardized test scores show no calibration bias. That is, we show that students from less advantaged backgrounds (i.e., less resourced high schools, low-income families, or underrepresented racial and ethnic backgrounds) do not outperform their peers from more advantaged backgrounds with similar test scores.

Since its release, this research has been specifically cited by several schools that made the decision to change their policies back to requiring testing (e.g. Brown University, California Institute of Technology, Dartmouth College, Harvard University, Stanford University, and Yale University) and has influenced testing policy at many more institutions.

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